注明 ：国家经济发展定律的核心“ 经济增长，实则就是物质与货币的同步增长。 ”最早发表于2009年10月25日， 网易博文“谈古论今” 第44 行。链接：http://okokok2008ok.blog.163.com/blog/static/8338550520099259421025/
以上的六篇论文所涉及到关键词句，即新生观点作为子论点论据并存，禁止他人盗用占为己有，关键词句有：“国家的经济增长实则就是物质与货币的同步增长”；“经济增长以物质为主，货币为辅”,“货币的投入要引起物质的产生”这句是投资拉动经济的基石,没有这理论做支撑，投资拉动经济只是一句空话；“发展都是货币先行，物质随后产生”； “失业造成经济危机”； “…货币流通，消除商品积压，促就业”， 这是说以消费流通解决产能过剩及失业问题,在此之前的经济学是没有“消费促增长”这个概念的，也没有依据支撑这个概念，但现在消费促增长已经是普遍共识了 ；“经济危机多数是货币流通不足，造成失业，以致人均货币持有率失衡”引起，而金融危机是因经济危机诱发的，或为“货币后供不足引发的金融危机”。所以“货币危机、经济危机、金融危机三者之间有着必然的相互关系”；“供求（需）关系”供需关系是我最早在经济学上应用到的，被他人引用后扩散最快的新概念；“因为开发商不缺钱，所以房价不下跌”；“房价要是降不下来，政府可以提升工资把泡沫扯平”这即是最早的房价收入比,在此之前也没有房价收入比这一概念，虽然有些剽窃家会说很早就有，但都没有合法出处。以上这些关键词句都是过去的经济学所没有的，都是人们忽视的真理，现在已经有很多人引用了以上这些词句，有些人企图占为己有是不能容忍的。理论的贡献是服务全人类的，是永恒的，所以其价值是无限的，创造一个有价值的定律真的不容易，其荣誉归属当属理论贡献人本人。
Six articles on basic theories of economics
Notes: Some verbiages, cliches and repeated words have been removed in following papers on the basis of originally articles.
(1) Law of National Economic Development
Law of National Economic Development: The economic growth of a country is virtually the simultaneous growth of materials and money.
Explanation: The essence of economic growth is the simultaneous increase of material and currency: a single growth is not economic growth. Take the single material growth for instance, if the money in circulation is insufficient, then severe unemployment will happen, so single material growth cannot last. Single monetary increase without material growth cannot be called as economic growth either. A simple and accurate statement is that the input of money should lead to the growth of materials and the rate of material growth should be corresponding to the money supply, which is the real simultaneous growth; if the input of money cannot lead to the growth of materials, or while money is massively supplied, materials only increase a little bit, causing large gaps, it is not the real simultaneous growth. Even if one hundred thousand trains of money is input, it is not economic growth without material growth, which can only cause inflation.
Money is normally the leading factor in development, and materials are then generated. Materials need to be produced by people. The higher the employment rate, the faster the materials increase……Expanding domestic demand and prompting people in employment as many as possible, are of course, impossible to solve the employment problem completely, as there will always be some people who are not employed because of various reasons, and there are also idle people who don’t want to work ……Although expanding domestic demand is not able to achieve 100% employment, the employment demands will spur enterprises to increase salaries and recruitments, so that people’s purchasing power is correspondingly improved, thus it also plays an important role in promoting economic development.
Source: This paper was first published in Netease blog (Netease Community Economic Forum). Date of publication: September 20, 2010
Annotation: The core of national economic development law ‘The economic growth is virtually the simultaneous growth of materials and money’ was first published on October 25, 2009 in the article ‘Ancient and present’ in Netease blog, line 44.
Additive explanation: This law was separately published in September 20, 2010, while ‘Explanation of the law’ was complementally published in October, 2010. The right of attribution of ‘Explanation of the law’ is valid upon the day of the supplementary publication.
(2) Causes and prevention of economic crises
It is often heard that economic crises will make a lot of people lose their jobs. Such a sentence usually sounds alright, but actually it is the other way round. It is no wonder many countries cannot get out of the shadow of the economic crisis after a very long period, for they have no idea about where the sticking point is. To put it in a right way: it is unemployment that causes economic crises. The causes of unemployment are comparatively various, but the largest and the fastest one is the compression of economics, in which the main measure of government is monetary squeeze.
For example, China has ever one compressed economy in 1997. Once the economic compression started, all kinds of industries were immediately affected. Take the construction industry for instance, influenced by the economic compression, uncompleted residential flats began to appear. The workers on building sites lost their job first, followed by employees of the material suppliers (This is a large group, including people who work in cement, steel, decoration material plants……). Unemployment naturally caused the decrease of purchasing power, resulting in overstocking of goods, which led to layoffs of businesses……This chain reaction quickly spread through, causing more unemployment, more goods overstocking, layoffs ...... this is what people call domestic economic crises
The international economic crisis is much the same as the domestic one, except that international economic crises in some countries occur because of the influences imposed by other countries, such as the effects of China's rapid rise, and exporting large quantities of materials. This also has a little influence on other countries, which, if handled properly, of course, is not harmful but beneficial.
Facing economic crises, countries may take a variety of measures, for example, inputting large sums of money to rescue the market. Injection of funds is necessary, but the money will be effective only when used properly.
Look at United States: it first used $ 700 billion for bailout, but the money was mainly put on airline and motor companies and so on. Money was injected, but it was like a clay ox entering the sea without any response, because people who needed money best are those in middle and lower classes, for whom even food expenditure would be a problem when out of work, not to mention to buy a car. They will not buy cars no matter how much money the state injects into motor companies...
Look at Japan: Japan gave allowance to every citizen. This method is feasible, for it is not only fair and just, but also has a rapid effect. The money will soon be in circulation, eliminating the backlog of goods and promoting employment…
Look at China: China was not severely affected by this worldwide economic crisis. It has always been in the process of large demolition and construction so as to drive the production of other industries. Besides, China also pays much attention to support the development of small and medium enterprises and promote employment…As long as everyone has a job and everyone takes part in production of materials, the economy will develop naturally. Just as what former Premier Wen Jiabao said: “Economy has no way to go but develop and any economic stagnation or compression is a dead end."He made it so accurate. Economic compression can cause significant hazard, such as the 97-year economic compression, during which a giant like Shi Yuzhu was also put into dire straits, desperately intending to jump from a tall building. Later government transition and currency reform went on, followed by the economic recovery, finally Giants Shi revived. It has been proved that economy has no way to go but develop, instead of being compressed.
Source: This paper was first published in Netease blog (Netease Community Economic Forum).
Date of publication: October 15, 2010
(3) Causes of financial crisis
Source: Interpretation of the book Only Socialism can Save America
Let’s first get to know what is finance? Security trading belongs to finance, so do bank deposits and insurance industry. Finance is to collect currencies in the society for re-circulation: listed companies issue shares to absorb money in order to expand their businesses; banks on-lend to others for production through absorbing deposits; insurance company is also investing in businesses through absorbing social currencies. What is financial crisis? Financial crisis refers to the failure to gather funds. The main features are listed companies having difficulties in getting funds, caused by falling of stock price; deposits absorbed by banks decreasing significantly and so on. When the social economy is having a good time, circulation of currency is also smooth with comparatively balanced average rate of currency holdings per capita, thus the financial industry thrives; when the economic crisis comes, people possess less money and fewer people would deposit their money into bank accounts. They oversell stocks to get cash for living costs so the share prices fall; economic crises are mainly caused by the lack of currency in circulation, resulting in unemployment and thus unbalanced average rate of currency holdings per capita, while financial crises are brought out by economic crises or insufficient money supply. So monetary crises, economic crises and financial crises have inevitable mutual relationships.
Source: This paper was first published in Netease blog (Netease Community Economic Forum).
Date of publication: December 7, 2010
(4) Causes and measures of high housing price
The causes of high housing price:
1. The demand exceeds the supply. Local houses are too few while the demands are large, thus causing the imbalance between the supply and the demand;
2. There are only a few developers, creating monopolies;
3. The housing price is determined by developers. When each property is pushed onto the market, developers will raise prices infinitely. Even if they cannot sell it, they can get more funds from banks. Developers would rather keep getting loans to develop new real estates and pay back old loans than lower housing prices. Normally, the more vacant dwellings developers have, the higher the prices offered and the larger amount of loans can developers get. They repay petty loans and develop with large loans, so that they could continue developing without lowering housing prices. More and more vacant dwellings are in their hands while the money they owe to banks is more and more. Most developers are like this: I have a lot of vacant dwellings here with quite high prices, so banks have no reasons refusing lending me money. Because developers are not in short of money, housing prices will not fall. Even if the government plans to construct a large number of affordable housing, it is only a drop in the bucket without significant effects. If the government does not set a limit for long, not only will the bubbles grow, but the bank's money will be emptied by developers sooner or later.
Such measures may be taken as expanding house development lands, and striving for oversupply; increasing the number of developers, for only the existence of competition can avoid monopoly; local governments should carefully record the number of vacant housing developers have and set limits according to their registered capital. Developers can continue getting bank loans only when the amount of vacant housing in their hands is within certain limitation (that is, the number of vacant dwellings should be less than the specified for developers to get loans), if the number of vacant dwelling exceeds specified limits, developers are not able to get a new loan, not to mention repaying old loans by getting new loans without lowering housing prices. As long as the amount of vacant dwelling is within specified limit, banks will continue giving loans to support their development. With this rule, developers without sufficient financial resources have to lower their housing prices to repay their loans, and other developers with strong financial resources can only accept lowering prices so that housing prices will fall. (This article is only for reference)
Source: This paper was first published in Netease blog (Netease Community Economic Forum).
Date of publication: December 13, 2010
(5) On Economics
Let’s quote words from masters. Xie Zuoshi said: "The world is complex, while the theory we use to observe the world should be simple instead." Coase said, “Economics can only tell people a few simple principles. Those abstract and complex theories are either errors or nonsense.” Knight said, “Economics is completely useless. The Department of Economics should be removed from universities.” Krugman said, “Over the past few decades, macroeconomics, to put it mildly, is inutility, to put it in a sharp way, is all harmful without good.” What do all the famous words mean?
Over the past few decades, economics did have not played a big role, for which the rooting reason primarily is that there is no any main economic direction-no core goal! Many countries put money into calculation with vague targets, almost foolhardily! Trying their luck ……
My thesis exactly fills the empty of absence of major part in economics. So to speak I have already opened up the big mining of economics completely, only leaving the fine path to be developed. The fine path is broad, including all aspects, which still needs to be gradually improved by politicians and economists in practice.
The major part of economics is formed by three sections, namely, ‘the law of national economic development’, ‘causes and prevention of economic crises’ and ‘causes of financial crises’.
For ‘causes and measures of high housing price’, as it belongs to the real estate economics class, it can be classified into fine path for reference (This paper is no detailed and intact enough, but all it contains are key points and can be as well applied to real estate construction, industrial and agricultural construction for reference which all have problems of supply and demand) Generally I do not like to follow the fine path. It is related to the fact that real estate construction accounts for the heaviest weight in economic development, and because plagiarizer Chen Sijin said in his book Only Socialism can Save the United States: “Let export substitute real estate”, which is quite wrong and misleading. I especially stressed this when unscrambling the book, for economic growth is material based, supplemented by money. Replacing the real estate with export equals no growth. It is also because economic growth is material based, I made it clear in ‘causes and prevention of economic crises”: unemployment causes economic crises. Due to unemployment, materials increase less and average rate of currency holdings per capita is imbalanced.
Jointly calling real estate construction and real estate prices as real estate is originally correct, but from the aspect of management, because of the unclear division of labor in the past, it is likely to cause difficulties in management. Real estate construction is to be supported, but housing price is to be controlled. Sometimes because of the unclear division of labor, the real estate construction is also suppressed when constraining housing prices.
China still needs time to catch up with the rich countries that have abundant materials, such as houses and cars, whose supplies are almost saturation. Prices of materials which are amply supplied will not rise a lot, so there is no surprise that China's housing prices are higher than those in the US. When US economy is not good, it only suffers from imbalanced average rate of currency holdings per capita. It is not in short of materials. Now there are some bubbles in China’s housing prices, but it is not scary. The government can raise people’s salary to eliminate the bubbles if the prices verily do not go down. Conversely, the bubble index will be widened if salaries are lowered. Gradually raising wages adapts to the needs of economic development, also going with the tide of world development.
In the fine path, in addition to real estate construction, there are also financial construction, industrial construction, agricultural construction, transportation construction, logistic construction, etc. These are all main directions of the fine path, eventually converging to a core objective: to promote the synchronized growth of materials and currencies; and it is as well the law of our country's economic development.
Source: This paper was first published in Netease blog (Netease Community Economic Forum). Date of publication: January 21, 2010
（6）This is how housing bubbles burst
Housing bubbles are bound to burst one day. Many countries have gone through this devil period and the only difference is the degree of damage they suffered from.
The burst of housing bubbles has two factors:
1. When the housing prices are pushed by all kinds of factors like supply shortage and excessive credit to an unbearably high level for people’s wages, if the money is not sufficiently supplied, financial crises will occur. Financial crises generally come with economic crises. When most people are unemployed, the bubble will burst. It is tough for unemployed people to afford high housing prices; under the background of financial crises, banks also suffer. They are already short of money, forgetting about the fact that unemployed people will have no money to deposit into banks, people always go to banks to get money for living costs. It is hard for banks to keep running; developers also suffer, for no one will buy the vacant dwellings even with fire-sale prices, leaving batches of uncompleted buildings.... so there is no winner under the background of the burst of bubbles in financial crises.
2. Another kind of bubble burst happens under the condition of stable economic development. When the rigid demands have been met and people have their own apartments. The vacant dwellings held by developers are not needed any more, becoming superfluous and it is the time that bubbles burst. This kind of bubble burst almost has no impact on people. At this time, the development of construction industry slows down and steps into a stable period. There would be some spare employees related to construction industry. These spare staffs can be transferred to other sectors, even planting flowers and grass. As long as their incomes are secured, they will not be affected by the burst of the bubble; it does not affect the country either. The burst of bubbles in this manner will only result in larger drops of housing prices, but the materials have not been reduced, which means the buildings built are still there; burst of bubble only hurts developers who hold comparatively larger amount of vacant dwellings, so developers should control their amount of vacant dwellings within affordable limits, avoiding to take too great risks......the ideal condition of soft landing is that when rigid demands are met, developers do not have a particularly large amount of vacant dwellings and housing prices have returned to a reasonable level.
Source: This paper was first published in Netease blog (Netease Community Economic Forum). Date of publication: April 29, 2011
The keywords involved in the six papers above, which are new views coexisting as sub-argument and grounds of argument, are prohibited from unauthorized use by anyone. The key sentences are: "The economic growth of a country is virtually the simultaneous growth of materials and money"; "Economic growth is material based, supplemented by money ", (so) "money supply should result in production of materials". The sentence is the cornerstone of investment-led economy. Without the support from this theory, investment-led economy is just empty talk; “Money is the leading factor in developments, materials are then generated”; “unemployment causes economic crises”; “…circulate currency, eliminate the backlog of goods, and promote employment”, which means to solve the problem of excess capacity and unemployment by consumption and circulation. Before that, the economics did not have the concept of "promoting growth by consumption" and also no basis to support this concept, but now, that consumption can promote growth has been a common view; “Economic crises are mainly caused by the lack of currency in circulation, resulting in unemployment and thus unbalanced average rate of currency holdings per capita”, or “financial crises brought out by economic crises or insufficient money supply”, so “the monetary crises, economic crises and financial crises have inevitable ‘mutual relationship’; “the relationship of supply and demand” is originally a new concept applied in economics by me, which later used by others and quickly spread;“Because developers are not in short of money, housing prices will not fall”; “The government can raise people’s salaries to eliminate the bubbles if the prices verily do not go down”, which is the earliest housing price-earning ratio. Before that, the concept of price-earning ratio did not exist. Although some plagiarizer will say it has existed since a long time ago, it had no legitimate sources. All these keywords did not exist in economics in the past, which were all truth ignored by people, but now there are a lot of people citing these words. The attempts of some people to appropriate them will not be tolerated. Theoretical contribution is to serve the whole humanity, and is eternal, so its value is infinite. Creating a valuable law is seriously not easy and the honors related should undoubtedly belong to the theoretical contributor himself.
The non-standard format of papers above does not affect the core contents and value of the paper. The key values of a paper are whether or not its thesis is of value and whether or not its grounds of argument are reasonable. As the package, the "format" is virtually not a focal point. Basic economic theories are what people call "invisible hands". It is difficult to directly see the value of their existences as they are rarely directly used by ordinary people in life, but people are all beneficiaries of the theories. The main value of economic basic theories is to provide the basis for decision-maker, holding unseen influences.
Author: ye jian wei